Jeff Proctor

I used to be bothered when people seemed to pat themselves on the back for having “unique” worldviews. I would think, “your beliefs do not make you special.” Admittedly, I am still a bit bothered. “The Myth of the Rational Voter” sheds a great deal of light on the subject. Bryan Caplan argues that people have “preferences over beliefs.” That is, you would rather believe one thing than another. Put yet another way, you derive value from believing something as opposed to believing the opposite. Caring about the environment makes me feel a lot better than if I choose not to, even if the particular care I choose is misguided. Caring is more valuable to me than not caring.

What is the problem with having preferences over beliefs? Truth. There are people who derive the greatest value from being factually correct. However, that certainly does not describe everyone. Apply social pressures and other obstacles, and the value from fitting in, not rocking the boat, and appearing intelligent may overshadow any value obtained from being right. This is especially true when a person does not experience the direct impact of being wrong. Believing in aliens has a social cost (being an outcast), but I may actually derive more value from it if I find a group of friends who support me (especially if I had fewer friends before revealing my belief). However, the social cost of choosing not to believe in, say, gravity probably cannot be overcome by any personal value, as that belief, at best, gets me into some painful situations.

Preferences over beliefs have large implications for democracy. Caplan argues that it is rational, in some cases, to be irrational. If the value a person gets from their irrational beliefs is greater than the value lost from being wrong, it is rational to hold those irrational beliefs. In politics, it is often the case that my incorrect, or irrational, beliefs on an issue will not cause me to cast the single deciding vote that puts my policy views into legislation. Even if a bad law is passed, and I voted for the guy who passed it, it is not my fault. (Or, it is not just my fault.) Elections are unlikely to be decided by one vote.

Rational irrationality may explain the failings of democracy. Bad political ideas have very little direct impact on our lives. Furthermore, the social benefit of some bad ideas may be quite high. I have given Caplan’s view a very high-level review. Reading his book provides a cohesive framework for his viewpoint and the surrounding controversy. The verdict is still out on how widely his ideas will be accepted. It is fair to say, however, that the challenge he provides is formidable and should not be dismissed without vigorous rebuttal.

My Take: Buy This Book!